Market Stats Showing Acceleration of Downturn

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If you look at both the weekly MAAR report  and the January Monthly Indicators  you will see that the market is slipping more substantially in January this year vs. previous years.

I personally see this as a positive as the current capitulation in the market will hopefully mean a quicker trek to the bottom and should help drive buyers waiting on the sidelines back into this market.  I also feel like these stats finally show what I think many people have felt out in the market for quite some time…

With the HAI hitting 149 & a historical average in the mid-150’s (RREAR Page 2 and January Monthly Indicators Page 12), we’re getting awfully close to historical affordability levels.

Due to our seasonal nature in Minnesota real estate I still think we won’t see a bottom until Q4 2008 but the acceleration downward makes it seem more possible that this market will find its bottom in 2008 and not limp slowly down the hill for years to come.  Add to that the plan the 6 banks are putting forward to renegotiate loans already in default and I sense that this market is finally starting to make steps that will lead to a definite bottom in the future.

It’s impossible to time the market bottom and with interest rates still near all-time lows it isn’t a bad time to make a move up to a more expensive home or to buy a first home.  Prices may fall further but if interest rates move higher on inflation fears, any additional decrease in sales prices may be erased by equivalent or greater increases in interest rates.

If you’re wondering if now is a good time to buy for your situation, feel free to call or email me to discuss your situation.

Train Information on Rail Lines in Minnesota

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A client of mine found information via MNDOT regarding the traffic levels of train tracks throughout Minnesota, including the Twin Cities.  Unfortunately it does not show the train times but it does give an approximate count of the number of trains per day and the speed at which they travel:  http://www.dot.state.mn.us/ofrw/freightData.html

Pretty cool information… thanks Lisa & Jason!

Edina Realty Leads the Twin Cities Market

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Edina Realty posted a market share of 19.8% for closed transactions in the 12-month period ending September 31, 2007.  That means that there’s an almost 1 in 5 chance that a home sold in the Twin Cities will be sold by an Edina Realty agent.

In this slowing market, where inventory is at record levels, Buyers have almost too many choices to make and Sellers have so much competition for each of those buyers, make the same choice that nearly 1 in 5 customers in the Twin Cities make, work with an Edina Realty agent.  Since 1955, Edina Realty has helped Buyers and Sellers through both good and bad markets.

Edina Realty – Now, more than ever.

Aaron Dickinson + Edina Realty = Even Better! 

Edina Realty Market Share 10-07

Mayor Rybak Isn't The Only One Embarrassed

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In a recent Star Tribune article, Mayor Rybak says he’s embarrassed by the failure of the Minnesota Legislature and Governor to reach a deal for new money for road and bridge repairs/improvements.  While Governor Pawlenty’s argument that the legislature was asking for too much could be valid, the refusal by both sides to do anything for our failed infrastructure is absolutely unacceptable.

One of my roles as a Realtor is to negotiate for my client’s best interest… and 99% of the time my client gets what they wanted.  Here are professional politicians, a.k.a. negotiators of everything, and they can’t come to any sort agreement on one of the biggest issues we’ll have in this state.

Write your representatives, force the issue, be heard before we lose any more time!

August Minneapolis/St. Paul Home Sales Stats

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In August 4,173 closed in the 13 county metro area.  This is down 17.8% over last year and a whopping 40.2% over two years ago.

For the period of January – August 2007, there have been 28,739 closed sales, down 14.9% over last year and down 27% over two years ago.

It’s a slowing market… which is great for 1st time buyers and move-up buyers but not great for downsizing households.  Houses can sell quickly though… just sold one of my listings in 3 days!

I'm a Buyer Too, You Know

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After having made an unsuccessful bid to purchase a house via short sale back many months ago, an agent in my office suggested I take a look at a house which I hadn’t considered.

The homes I had been looking at were primarily ramblers (or ranch, or one story, depending on your area).  Actually, I had a pretty detailed set of criteria:

  • One story
  • 3/4 master bath or better (full highly preferred)
  • Big master bedroom (15 x 12 minimum)
  • 1980’s and newer
  • 1500+ sq ft on the main floor (bigger room sizes)
  • 4+ bedrooms (for roommates, office, guest bedroom)
  • Walkout basement
  • Big 2 car garage
  • .4 acre lot or bigger
  • Privacy off back yard
  • Inside the 94/694/100/394/494 NW quadrant
  • Under $375k

Needless to say I didn’t find much for sale!

What I’ve always hated about a traditional two story home (I call it a center stair two story) is the formal living room.  See, I don’t have a piano, don’t read books (Google is my library), and don’t know why you would sit in a room without a TV/DVD/stereo/computer/etc. so I see it as space that I have to fill with nice looking crap that won’t get used!  I LOVE modified two story homes and those with stairs on one side of the house or the other because it eliminates that room but keeps all the other goodies that a two story offers:

  • Separation of bedrooms from living areas
  • Big master suites
  • Most/all bedrooms on one level
  • Bigger room sizes, since foundation size isn’t the issue
  • Dramatic curb appeal (when done right!)

Due to the area I was looking, there aren’t really any two story homes with the floorplan I liked, so consequently I was looking at ramblers.  You have to get pretty big on the foundation size for ramblers before you get those bigger rooms and layout.  So, I made an offer on one in a short sale and several months later found out that we were $40,000 off in price and they didn’t want to budge.  So, bye-bye offer!

I went around and looked at some other ramblers, but none of them really caught my eye.  I was very disappointed and had decided that things were not going to work out right now when one of my coworkers suggested a property she had seen.  She said: “Aaron, I know it is priced higher than you wanted to go and it’s a two story, but it is a really nice house and you should take a look at it.”

I got the address, pulled it up online and decided to take a look.  Long story short, she was right… it was a great house!  Went back with another coworker who thought it was solid too, had him write an offer (more on that in a future post) and some back-and-forth with the seller and now I’ve got a new home!

I’m still doing inspections and whatnot so I don’t want to get into details but needless to say I have a lot of things I’d like to tell you.  Stay tuned for updates!

Motivated Seller – Come Back Next Year!

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Yes Folks, you read that right!

This was a quote from one of my buyers today… and he’s right on the money.  My buyer came in from Germany (the country not the town), flying 1/2 way around the world to look at houses for 5 days.  We had already narrowed down a list of houses to see before he came and quickly found one that met his needs.  Unfortunately the inspection went poorly and we had to walk away.

When we walked away that only left us with 1/2 of a day to find another home.  We requested 4 short notice showings (showings within 2 hours) and were only approved for 1!  Two said they needed 24 hours notice (though no mention of that was listed on the MLS) and the third never answered any of the requests for the showing.  When it was all said and done, my buyer and I had to concede that we were not going to find something for him before he had to leave.

When we were parting ways he gave me that line and it made us both think how crazy it is to be a seller trying to sell a home in this more competitive and slower market when you won’t let a ready, willing, eager and able buyer into see your home!  Something tells me they won’t see a SOLD sign anytime soon.

Moral of the story: You can’t always say “yes” to all showings, but you better make the best effort to say it to every showing you can!

Snow in June? Really?

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In this busy time of year, I see a lot of listings on the MLS.  Amazingly, a significant number of houses are the market 120+ days have snow in the main photo.  I did a random sample of 400 houses on 120+ days and found a total of 14 with snow in the photo.

If you are a buyer looking at houses online, what is your first impression about a home for sale in June that still has snow in the main photo?  My guess is that it’s not a good impression… feel free to leave your specific thoughts below.