NAR Needs to Shut Up

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If the incessant radio ads from the National Association of REALTORS were not enough, now I see they are also on television with the same garbage: “real estate is a good investment and historically doubles every 10 years.”  Give me a break.

There are many, many things that my association does well but this is a prime example of a ridiculous message at a horrible time.  I don’t know if there is a single consumer out there today that expects that a house they buy today will double in the next 10 years… and I think most understand that the housing market is not going to move higher for several years.

This ad simply promotes the misconception that REALTORS do not understand what is actually happening in the real estate market today, or that we simply will not accept it.  When sales are down 30%+ from two years ago (and consequently commissions) and we’re seeing more empty desks and less people in the office, I can assure you that we as agents understand that this is a different market with different needs.

Instead of trying to sell promises of sunshine in the middle of a hurricane, the National Association of REALTORS would be much better off to admit that this market isn’t perfect for everyone, but that there are good opportunities out there for certain people in certain situations.

NAR: Please either promote a more realistic message or shut up entirely… I don’t need the kind of help you’re giving me right now.

Spring Parade of Homes in Full Swing

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The Parade of Homes started last weekend and continues through March 16, 2008.  This is typically a time where we see a uptick in buyer activity and in the past, builders have used this as a platform to push some of their “spec” homes and of course push their custom homes as well.

While it certainly seems inviting for buyers to go to these model homes on their own, doing so means they miss their opportunity to get fair and impartial information from an agent representing their best interests.  Some homes on the Parade are a good value, some are not.  Each builder, location, and style/model of home has its good and its bad, and a knowledgeable agent can provide great advice on the available options.

Many buyers think that they can go see the houses on their own and then bring an agent back to help them with the one they want to purchase.  While that is true, what the buyer probably doesn’t know is that their agent may or may not be compensated by the builder for the sale because of Procuring Cause.

Simply put, buyers that want to have an agent represent them in a transaction should coordinate all their showing activities through that agent.

Train Information on Rail Lines in Minnesota

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A client of mine found information via MNDOT regarding the traffic levels of train tracks throughout Minnesota, including the Twin Cities.  Unfortunately it does not show the train times but it does give an approximate count of the number of trains per day and the speed at which they travel:  http://www.dot.state.mn.us/ofrw/freightData.html

Pretty cool information… thanks Lisa & Jason!

Minneapolis in a Housing Crisis

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While this housing market has been tough on many communities, parts of Minneapolis are being hit extremely hard.  The foreclosure and short sales taking place in Camden, Phillips and North Minneapolis are not only often becoming eyesores in the community, they are also dragging average sales prices down substantially.

Based upon MAAR’s Top 100 report for Minneapolis for December 2007, I was able to construct the following chart of average sales prices in Minneapolis communities:

Average Sales Price Change in Minneapolis from 2006 to 2007

I wish this chart was wrong, I wish it didn’t show such a disparity amongst neighborhoods, and I wish I didn’t have to talk about it.  Alas, not talking about it will not solve the problem and this is an issue I simply could not be silent on any longer.

I have been working on some figures showing the number of homes for sale in these communities that are either in a short sale or foreclosure situation but the data isn’t complete yet and I want to make sure it’s right before I release it.  What I can tell you though is that these communities have been hit hard by the rise in short sales and foreclosures, as can be seen by anybody showing houses in these neighborhoods.

While there are still many homes for sale that are owner-occupied and in great condition, the sheer number of distressed properties for sale have a hugely negative effect on the market for the following reasons:

  1. Competition – Simply having so many homes for sale increases buyer’s options, which puts pricing pressure on sellers.
  2. Impression – Some homes in a short sale situation and a majority of bank owned properties have been neglected or even boarded up… having a few in a neighborhood brings down the perceived character of the neighborhood.
  3. Comparables – Eventually these distressed properties sell and then become comparables for appraisers and future buyers.  Though the condition may be terrible, that isn’t readily apparent in most MLS reports and therefore the appraiser or buyer may believe the home was in better condition that it actually was, thus pulling down the value of homes it is compared against.

As we are still in the middle of the subprime and ARM mortgage fallout, the high inventory and pricing pressure in theses neighborhoods is not likely to moderate for quite some time, which could lead to further price erosion this year.

While this is terrible news for the current homeowners in these neighborhoods, there is supposed to be a “silver lining” to this market downturn: housing affordability in these neighborhoods has headed substantially higher in the last year to the point that many people who could not afford to buy a home years ago can get into a home today.

I just recently closed on a deal with a 1st time buyer who purchased a 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home with 1 car attached garage just a few blocks off the Parkway in North Minneapolis.  This home had quite a few cosmetic issues to fix but had a new furnace and newer roof and some great built-ins and woodwork.  Her total payment is under what she was paying in rent and her home has a lot more space for her family!

While she was successful, it was a big struggle to get her into the home, mainly because of the catch-22 on the only loan we were able to get for her:

  • Like most 1st time buyers, she had little cash upfront.
  • 100% financing is almost completely gone, so the next best thing is FHA financing, with a 3% downpayment requirement and upfront Mortgage Insurance Premium.
  • This buyer was able to secure some downpayment assistance money and we had the seller pay the closing costs, so her total out of pocket cash to close was approximately $1000.
  • To meet FHA guidelines, the home had to be livable at closing.  This means the plumbing, electrical and heating all had to be in working condition and operating for the appraiser’s inspection.
  • Like a large number of homes that are bank-owned, the utilities were off when we saw it, but we were able to get the seller(bank) to agree to dewinterize and turn on the heating and water.
  • There were items that needed repairs to get it to pass the FHA appraisal and most banks do not permit a buyer to complete any work on the property prior to close, but we were able to secure permission from the listing broker to make minor repairs.
  • When the water was turned on we found out that that the water heater was broken and we had to have a plumber install a new one, which was an unexpected expense.
  • There was exterior paint on the foundation that was peeling (an FHA issue) but since it was too cold to fix it the money had to be set aside at closing for the repairs.

While this buyer was able to get into this home, most other first time buyers will not be as lucky.  As I said above, most banks will not let anyone do anything to repair the home prior to closing and so if the home is out of FHA compliance for almost anything, the buyer will not be able to purchase that home.  Homes that are in a short-sale position are typically in better condition and sellers would work with a buyer on repairs but if it is anything costly no one will have any money to fix it!

The other issue is the 3% downpayment… many buyers simply do not have that saved, but are more than capable of making the monthly payments.  There are some downpayment assistance programs available but they are a small share of the total market and many loan officers are either unaware of them or in the case of government-sponsored programs, are not approved to use them.  This will put many of the rest of the homes that are in good condition still out of reach.

If a 1st time buyer does have cash, they can go with a Conventional loan & eliminate most of the lender required repairs but most of those loans need a minimum of 5% down payment and if the appraiser or Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac describe the neighborhood as a “declining market,” then the down payment requirement would jump from 5% to 10% for most and the zero down payment loans would go to 5%.

What this all means is that only a limited number of 1st time buyers will be able to take advantage of this “silver lining.”  The rest of this inventory will need to be acquired by buyers who have significant cash: typically rehabbers and landlords.  Rehabbers are likely to remain on the sidelines for a while longer simply because the fundamentals of the market in these areas are still softening and that makes it risky to go in and try to fix it up and sell it for a profit.

That really leaves us with landlords.  As with my buyer, these landlords can come in and buy these homes for less than their rental value and make great cash flow off them.  While that will mean the neglected exteriors of many of these houses will likely get some attention, it could take largely owner-occupied neighborhoods to largely rental neighborhoods and I believe that most people would agree that strong neighborhoods are those that have a good balance between owner-occupied and rental.

This situation needs immediate attention by the community.  In the best of circumstances, a public-private partnership would be formed to help assist more 1st time buyers in acquiring these affordable homes and try to help keep these communities occupied and maintain the balance between owner-occupied and rental.  This assistance could be in the form of additional downpayment assistance or nonprofit rehabbers turning around and selling it to eligible buyers.  Either way this takes money that doesn’t appear to be just sitting around, so this will take a considerable effort to achieve.

Earnest Money in Purchase Agreements

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Earnest Money and its role isn’t always understood, so I felt it would be good to give a quick overview:

What it Is
Earnest Money is effectively a deposit by the Buyer that is offered at the time of the offer. 

How Much
Earnest Money is often 1% of the sales price, but can be significantly more or less depending on the situation.  A quick closing may need less cash, a longer closing more.  This is also a great way to show strength in a low offer as it shows a strong financial position and confidence in the transaction.

Where it Goes
Upon acceptance of the offer, the money is deposited into the listing broker’s trust account where it is kept until closing or until cancellation of the Purchase Agreement.  At closing, the money is credited back to the Buyer on the HUD-1 Settlement Statement.

It’s Purpose
Earnest Money is used to assure the Seller that the Buyer is serious about consumating the transaction and gives them consideration in the event that the Buyer does not complete the transaction, assuming that they did not cancel for reasons permitted in the contract.

How a Buyer can Lose it
If a Buyer cancels the offer due to problems from their inspection or from failure to secure financing, they almost always have their Earnest Money returned.  In condos and townhomes, a Buyer has 10 days from the date they received the association documents to review them and cancel the offer and get their money back if they desire.  If a Buyer gets cold feet and wants to cancel well after completion of an inspection, they may lose their Earnest Money.

Twin Cities Homes for Sale Under $190,000 Explode

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While the Twin Cities Market as a whole in December 2007 had approximately 10% more listings than it did in December 2006, this increase in inventory is substantially skewed towards the 1st time buyer side of the market.

Below you will find slides from the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS December 2007 Housing Supply Outlook.Housing Supply Outlook - Inventory by Price

When you look at the numbers, the largest increase in inventory is at the lowest end of the pricing segment.  We see that in just 12 months we’ve over doubled the number of homes for sale under $120,000.  Even $120,000-$150,000 saw a 56% increase and $150,000-$190,000 saw a 24% increase.  When you hit $190,000-$250,000, inventory is only up 2.5% and from $250,000-$1,000,000 inventory has actually shrunk!  The 10.5% increase in $1,000,000+ homes is such a small number of units (74) that statistically I don’t think its too significant to the market as a whole.

This is a huge contrast!  The month of supply has also increased, but not nearly as dramatically, as seen below:Housing Supply Outlook - Months Supply by Price Range

If you look closely at what’s happening in the above charts, you’ll find another trend that’s shown in this chart:Housing Supply Outlook - Sales by Price Range

Sales in the last 12 months have grown strongly on the very low end of the market (under $150,000) and have fallen at all higher price points.  Metro-wide, sales are down 16%+ so any increase in sales shows a segment clearly bucking the trend.

What does all this mean?  Though the subprime market is supposed to have hurt the 1st-time buyer market, the sales from 2007 show that buyers in this range are more active than they were in 2006.  Does this mean the 1st time buyer is alive and well???  I’d love to hear comments from the peanut gallery.

One thing I’d love to see is a distribution of homes in foreclosure on this price graph… it would be very interesting to see which price points have the highest foreclosures… are you reading this Jeff Allen? :-)

Mortgage Rates Tumble

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Over the last couple of weeks 30-year fixed mortgage rates fell substantially… I’ve seen some recent quotes for 5.5%!

Taking 1/2% off the interest rate (which is what has happened in the last few weeks) on a $300,000 loan saves you $1500 per year in interest charges, which would be a savings of $125 per month or is like taking nearly $21,000 off the purchase price of the house, as compared to the higher interest rate.

With record high inventory and affordability at 3 year highs, this is a great time to be a buyer!

Here are a couple loan officers that I recommend if you are looking for information on what you can afford, how mortgages work, or want to get a pre-approval.  Please feel free to contact them or myself if there’s anything we can do for you!

Nicci Brown – Edina Realty Mortgage

Cheryl Stuntebeck – Bell Mortgage

No consideration has been received for these recommendations.

Top 10 Reasons Why Countrywide is Being Stupid With REO's

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Time and time again, I see Countrywide Home Loans (CHL) listing their Real Estate Owned (REO) properties on our local MLS and requiring buyers to get pre-approved with a Countrywide Retail Loan Officer prior to submission of their offer.  In fact, in their required addendums, it is specifically noted:

If the Agreement is contingent on financing, as a sales condition, Buyer must obtain a pre-approval letter from a branch office of Countrywide Home Loans, Inc. (“CHL”) for a mortgage loan in an amount and under terms sufficient for Buyer to perform its obligations under the Agreement, and such letter must accompany the Agreement.  The pre-approval shall include, but is not limited to, the pre-approval letter, a satisfactory credit report, and proof of funds sufficient to meet Buyer’s obligations under the Agreement. Buyer’s submission of proof of pre-approval is a condition precedent to Seller’s acceptance of Buyer’s offer. Seller may require Buyer to obtain, at no cost to Buyer, loan pre-approval as Seller may direct. Notwithstanding any Seller required pre-approval, Buyer is not required to obtain financing from CHL or Seller- Buyer may obtain financing from any source.  As an incentive for the Buyer to obtain financing from CHL, CHL will offer a free appraisal and a free credit report if the Buyer finances and closes the purchase of the Property through financing from CHL.

This is ludicrously stupid for the following reasons (not a complete list):

  1. Most buyers are pre-approved early in the home search process and have already chosen a lender they are comfortable with and are ready to buy NOW.
  2. Most buyers do not want to share private information with a stranger.
  3. Most buyers have no intention of working with the Countrywide Loan Officer.
  4. Countrywide pulls credit, meaning another inquiry on buyer’s credit report.
  5. Countrywide’s lending capabilities (product options) have been dramatically reduced since they are doing mostly/only loans that Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac will buy.
  6. Agents have existing relationships with loan officers that they know, trust, and can count on… they don’t like to have an ultimatium put to them any more than a buyer and don’t like interference in their client relationship.
  7. Agents often have such a long list of potential homes to show that they need to find reasons to eliminate some… this is an obvious candidate for removal.
  8. Countrywide doesn’t care who the approval is from or how solid the buyer is… if they are using financing, they HAVE TO get a pre-approval from Countrywide Retail. Period.
  9. Offering to do a free appraisal on a home that they own is akin to having the fox guard the hen house simply because he’ll do it for free… where’s the buyer’s protection when the seller is the loan originator?
  10. And finally- buyers are not stupid and they know when they’re being jerked around.  With so much inventory on the market, they can choose to tell Countrywide to keep their property and they’ll go find someone else who won’t treat them like a fool.

According to the Countrywide Foreclosure Blog, Countrywide had 14,442 REO homes listed on their site as of 12/5/07 at a total asking price of just over $3 Billion.  With so much inventory, so much competition, such a difficult buyer market, and tough times keeping Countrywide financially afloat, you would think that they would want to do everything they could to get their properties sold!

Recently I have seen several of Countrywide’s properties in the $200,000 range price reduced $30,000 and $40,000 all at once.  Such drastic price reductions have generated interest in the properties but also shows the motivation, and possibly desperation, of Countrywide to get these houses off their books.  If they eliminated their pre-approval requirement, they might see more interest from qualified buyers without having to so drastically reduce prices.

Some people suggest that Countrywide requiring a pre-approval is smart business, that it gives them an opportunity to pick up the buyer’s mortgage.  I would be surprised if they had more than a 20% capture rate on these leads (but I have no knowledgewhat their capture rate is), and the added holding costs for longer sale, disinterested buyers, and further price reductions make me think that this is a losing battle for them. 

Message to Countrywide: eliminate your CHL pre-approval requirement.  You’ll sell more houses, sell them faster, and likely at a higher price.

Should Banks Convert ARMs into Fixed Rate Loans?

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CNBC has a great aricle titled: “Loan Modification Anyone?”

The article does bring up a good point… while saving buyers that are in danger of losing their homes is a good policy, going too far is not fair for everyone else and can potentially lead to more fraud in the market.  It’s amazing to see the differences in opinion and direction this market seems to be taking.

All I know is that they better come up with something… the foreclosure market continues to grow as a percentage of listings for sale on the MLS and that isn’t good for the long-term health of our housing market.

Minneapolis/St. Paul Median Home Sales Price Falls

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The October 2007 Median Sales Price for Twin Cities homes fell 3.5% from a year ago and 4.3% from two years ago, to $220,000.  The Median Sales Price is the price at which 1/2 of the homes sold for more and 1/2 of the homes sold for less.

While this sounds like negative news, pricing is all relative.  The only people who suffer in a falling real estate market are the downsizing & downpricing homeowners.  For those who bought in the last few years that are trying to sell today will see red ink on the sell side but will see savings on the purchase of their new home.  Most of all, first time buyers and move-up buyers are definitely winning in this market.